Monday, July 20, 2009

Analysts project McClatchy will report big loss tomorrow... 2nd quarter revenue could be $121 million less than a year ago

Newspaper analysts anticipate McClatchy will report a significant revenue plunge when the company announces its second quarter performance tomorrow. Here is the AP's summary:

OVERVIEW: Hardly anything has gone right during the past few years for the owner of The Miami Herald and 29 other daily newspapers. The hard-luck theme is unlikely to change in the Sacramento-based company's second-quarter earnings report.

With the newspaper advertising market in ruins, another loss seems certain.

As the losses mount, the chances of a bankruptcy filing rises. That's because McClatchy is saddled with $2 billion in outstanding debt with a steadily shrinking cash flow to cover its future obligations and adhere to the financial requirements — known as covenants — set by its secured lenders.


BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect McClatchy to lose 8 cents per share on revenue of $369 million. The company earned 24 cents per share on revenue of $490 million at the same time last year.

ANALYST TAKE: Fitch Ratings analyst Michael Simonton is among the camp that believes McClatchy will wind up in bankruptcy court at some point. "Default is imminent or inevitable," Simonton predicted after McClatchy's debt exchange flopped.

WHAT'S AHEAD: Unless the advertising market rebounds soon, McClatchy may have to lower its expenses even more to pay its bills and remain in good graces with its bankers. That could mean even more layoffs at a company that already jettisoned about one-third of its work force in the past year.

Hat tip: email

Update: The AP has updated their initial report to include this correction:

This version CORRECTS analyst estimate for quarter loss to 8 cents per share, instead of $6.45 per share.




Anonymous said...

WOW !!

Anonymous said...

Analyst smanalyst. If anyone has been following the market lately just about EVERYONE has beaten analyst expectations.

Of course this likely means that MNI will be the only one to not do it.

Anonymous said...

Think happy thoughts...

Anonymous said...

Will McClatchy’s strategy of hiring exclusively from the pool of laid-off, left-wing, burned-out rejects from other dying newspaper chains, and then letting them write the same kind of biased BS for McClatchy finally work out?

Check back in less than 24 hours sports fans!

Anonymous said...

Free-Paper Publisher Metro Swings to Q2 Loss -- Unprofitable Papers to be Cut? (Editor and Publisher)

CHICAGO Metro International S.A., the big global publisher of free commuter dailies, reported on Monday a second-quarter operating loss of 3 million euros (US $4.27 million) on revenue that plunged 26%. In the same period a year ago, Metro reported an operating profit of 0.6 million euros (US $82,000).

Adjusted for currency movements and on a same-property basis, net revenue declined by 12%, Metro said.

In June, Metro exited the U.S. market, selling its papers in markets including New York City and Philadelphia to Seabay Media, which continues to publish them under a licensing agreement.

Anonymous said...

Analyst smanalyst.

First off, your statement that just about everybody has beaten analyst expectations is patently false. Secondly, the information that companies give analysts are what a large part of their analysis is based on, so when they miss, it is almost always because the company has intentionally guided the analysis lower with the intent of setting the bar so low that they can beat it.

With only two analysts covering McClatchy which by the way lowered their expectation yet again this month, meeting them is assured.

One way or another, no matter how pretty the lipstick that they apply, their gross revenues will continue to decline.

Anonymous said...

Of course none of this continuing rotten news will be because of the lefty slant on news. It's because the lefty management is totally incompetent, right?

Anonymous said...

Gee whiz! Nothing but negativity here!

I think we should celebrate a Presidency that has brought the American Communist Party into the big tent of American Democracy. At last we have a Government that even Communists can believe in! Ah, sweet victory!

How rare it is for former enemies of America to come around to steadfast belief in the American Democratic System! They came to scoff, but stayed to pray, as it were.

Surely, Dear Leader is The One!

Anonymous said...

any layoff rumors?

Anonymous said...

LOL! Gary The Idiot is the best worst CEO in the world LOL!!!

Anonymous said...

Does anybody have a few extra million laying around they don't need? We need them to buy one of the newspapers and make a conservative paper in print.

Naa.. Disregard that, people are tired of the liberal spin currently in print and wouldn't believe a conservative based paper.

Anonymous said...

GP will, once he gets his buyout. If they gave a useless VP over 600K, he should be good for a few million.

Anonymous said...

Look for more consolidation at all the MNI properties in this quarter.

Look for more prices increases at papers that did not increase prices the first six months of 2009 and look for more sections to be combined within sections.

Look for more building consolidation this quarter as newspapers try to bring all their outlying advertising locations closer to the main building.

Look for more creative ways to deliver the product via outsourcing carrier delivery in some fashion and look for more consolidation of rural deliveries from seven days a week to one day a week .

Look for more outsourcing of finance, HR, and IT staff to either local companies or global companies that have contracts with MNI.

Look for more push of online content and websites being tweaked to make it easier to navigate.

Would not be shocked if some of these steps were discussed last month as MNI papers were looking at their 2nd quarter numbers

Anonymous said...

One way or another, no matter how pretty the lipstick that they apply, their gross revenues will continue to decline.


Well of course their gross revenues will decline. Whose hasn't?

The question will be are expenses low enough to offset the drop AND when things turn around will revenue come back? (If they lose $121 million, did it go elsewhere, or was it just not spent - TWO very different things)

Anonymous said...

Just the facts ma'am, just the facts...March 1, 2009 the McClatchy Annual report for 2008.

Right from the horse's mouth!

This is a time of painful economic contraction and unprecedented transformation in the news industry, so it is understandable that everybody involved with McClatchy – shareholders, management and employees – is focused on how the company is doing and how it plans to succeed in the future.

Looking Forward
We approach 2009 with a strong sense of resolve.
On the revenue side, the picture is decidedly mixed.

We will be working hard to narrow the rate of revenue decline. That is our most important goal for 2009.

In 2008 we reduced debt by $433
million, and total debt at year end was $2.038 billion. (Baby steps)

In the coming months you will see the full effect of our restructuring actions and we will continue to streamline operations in 2009. (oh crap...more layoffs?)

Building momentum in reducing costs is our second most important goal for 2009.

Putting it all together, 2009 has started ugly – like 2008 ended – but we expect trends to improve later in the year. Let me assure you that we at McClatchy are up for
this fight.

So there you have it folks. Go to the website and read the whole report then make your judgments and for them that's left working at McClatchy, update your resume and and grab your socks.

Anonymous said...

The question will be are expenses low enough to offset the drop AND when things turn around will revenue come back?

The answer is no. Expenses will never be low enough until they cut print production across the board as it represents 70% of their cost structure....and....No, even at the outside chance that things turn around before MNI is bankrupt, even then it will not be enough to cover their debt coming due in 2011. Not by a long shot.

McClatchy is a doomed company and failure is certain...imminent..guaranteed, unless they can manage legislation that forces tribute, a government take over, or an ideologically oriented, "White Knight"

Anonymous said...

One thing for certain, advertisers in California and Florida are not going to bounce back this year, or in 2010.

So it's up to the other papers to keep the whole McBoat afloat until 2011.

Anonymous said...

GP will, once he gets his buyout. If they gave a useless VP over 600K, he should be good for a few million.
I think that ^ is the only reason they don't fire his ass. His Golden Parachute would guarantee bankruptcy. He IS a genius !

Anonymous said...

All is well in Wichita, though!

Anonymous said...

That pretty much makes it unanimous. Every single McClatchy tentacle has declared their profitability.

The sad part is, they have no clue that writing such letters while the public knows better only erodes their credibility a little farther each time.

RIH Beagle Babe.