... Research firm CreditSights, in a report released Monday, said McClatchy had a 47% chance of defaulting within a year. As we've seen repeatedly in recent months with companies as big as Tribune Co. and as small as the Minneapolis Star Tribune, a default event is sometimes followed by a bankruptcy filing.
Analysts Louise Purtle and Kai Gilkes measured 628 companies with junk-territory credit ratings and concluded the three worst sectors are airlines, paper products -- and media. McClatchy was among the most high-profile companies in its sector, scoring better than Air Canada (with a 61% shot at default) but not as good as Clear Channel, with a 34% probability).
Forbes, reporting on the CreditSights analysis, notes a score above 20% “implies a strong chance of financial trouble and looming default.”