Thursday, July 9, 2009

Ruh roh!... analysts expect Gannett will report second quarter revenue down 32%... a sign of things to come for McClatchy?

Jennifer Saba says analysts expect Gannett will report a big advertising plunge for the second quarter:

Signs of a turnaround in Q2 are highly unlikely for the Gannett Co., wrote J.P. Morgan analysts Alexia Quadrani and Monica DiCenso in a note issued this afternoon.


The analysts are anticipating another "weak quarter" for the McLean, Va.-based company when it releases its earnings on July 15. J.P. Morgan forecasts that newspaper advertising revenue at Gannett fell 32% in Q2. "Severe revenue declines" are expected at USA Today."


Advertisers and local media operators that we spoke with remain very cautious on the outlook for local ad spending, in spite of easing comps, leading us to believe that we may not have reached a bottom yet in the market," Quadrani and DiCenso wrote.


Despite Gannett's efforts at cost cutting, the analysts said that ad revenues are dropping at such a rapid pace it won't alleviate margin pressure. Consolidated EBITDA is forecasted to decline to $247.5 million in Q2 or a margin of 17%. In the same period in the prior year, Gannett's EBITA margin was 25%, according to J.P. Morgan.


McClatchy's second quarter earnings conference call is July 21st.
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7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I would say revising the estimates downward to -0.08 cents per share from -0.06, enacting the vacation burn offs, default rating handed down by all three rating agencies, and shit canning one of their golden vice presidents pretty much gave told us what's up. Revenue declines from Gannett in that range means that McClatchy once again pulled an Obama/Biden and under estimated the situation, which is the understatement of the year all by itself.

Additional layoffs are all but certain. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they sought the banks permission to close a few of the worst drains or in lieu of that, send a few papers into online only operations.

One way or another, if you still work for McClatchy, it is time to panic.

For those that warned of continued pain and didn't buy into the hacks telling everyone things were looking good, we're done with layoffs etc, this stock will triple, blah, blah, blah....Congratulations.

Always remember, if a McClatchy employee tells you anything, don't believe it. They are either lying, or too dumb to see through bullshit.

Anonymous said...

Just curious...If McClatchy comes out and says they lose x% you guys will still beat on them right?

I mean, unless they show they were even, or profitable nothing will "satisfy" you.

Just wanted to make sure that we are on the same page.

Anonymous said...

Breath deeply libs, it will all be over soon. McD's is hiring!

Anonymous said...

Just curious...If McClatchy comes out and says they lose x% you guys will still beat on them right?



McClatchy will be beat on until such time that they make a positive effort to clean up their act. The percentage loss is irrelevant beyond the fact that it represents a lagging indicator until time before bankruptcy.

Your fine arts mind seems to think that it is strictly a personality issue. Aside from those who rightfully hate McClatchy due to being fired while management is stuffing their own pockets, and those smart enough to know that alienating 50% or more of your potential audience is bad business, it isn't.

When McClatchy takes steps to improve the company via bankruptcy, removal of the management personnel responsible and separation of control by the family, McClatchy will continue to be criticized heavily.

Anonymous said...

I love how all these Right wingers feast on the decline of our liberal newspapers. However the extremely liberal Internet is here to stay. Look how John McCain's campaign fell apart because of the internet. The liberal media print is the Republicans best friend. They just to dumb to realize. I predict when newspapers disappear so does the Republican party and all it's ultra-right followers....

Anonymous said...

The "Liberal Internet?"


You really are stupid.

Anonymous said...

Anon 7:56 Spot on!

anon 11:58 Stay in your bath house