Yesterday I emailed MNF-I to see if they had additional information about the cause of the refinery fire. Last night I recieved a response from MNF-Iraq. From the email:
There were indications of an indirect fire attack, including conflicting eyewitness accounts by civilians in the area.
We haven't ruled out indirect fire as a potential cause of the initial damage, but efforts to reduce the fire negated our ability to conduct a definitive crater analysis to determine beyond a doubt that it was indirect fire that caused the damage to the site.
LT Nixon emailed. He pointed out Iraqis often give erroneous information to the press before they have all the facts. "If it comes down to MNF-I or an Iraqi source and the two sources conflict, go with the MNF-I source, since it is their policy to never release false information."
The 12/10 MNF-I press release on the refinery fire is here. Looks like they jumped the gun in this case.