This blog is mainly about the spectacular train wreck at The Sacramento Bee and its parent company, the McClatchy Company. But I also post about current events, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, politics, anything else that grabs my attention. Take a look around this blog, hope you enjoy it.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
McClatchy stock up 37% in early trading
McClatchy (MNI) shares are trading at $1.01 a share as of 11:25 EST, 37% above yesterday's close. Volume is heavy -- 1.29 million shares have already changed hands. . . .
Pruitt has to be about ready to pull the all-online card. Print is a dead duck, judging by McClatchy's quarterly figures. You can't sustain profits with continued print losses. The answer is to drastically whack print's loser costs and go with a modern method of delivery - online. Do it! Now you moron!
This stock runup will be shortlived. People trying to make a quick buck. Reality will set in soon and stock price will drop. You can't have a sustained stock runup with revenue and ad sales declines of 25-31 percent.
Newspaper companies are "showing profits" only because they drastically slashed costs and watered down the product. This is a temporary fix to stop the bleeding. Everybody knows it. The real test comes now. Remember that McClatchy stock traded above $5 in the past year. They HAVE to keep cutting costs to show "profits." Look for more staff reductions and nobody is going to get a raise - unless it's Pruitt and his henchmen.
Let Pruitt and the board of directors make a little money off the artificial stock price runup (and you know they are making it today). It will be their going away present before the company folds.
The revenue loss is year over year. For those of you that do not remember, the "crisis" started in August/September of last year. You cannot compare YoY numbers to gauge improvement.
Once revenue increases from month to month/quarter to quarter, then you know the company has turned the corner. They already cut expenses to account for the 30% revenue drop.
As long as Q3's revenues are about the same as Q2's, then the profit would be the same (regardless of the % drop in YoY numbers).
Since the expense cuts are ongoing (meaning it is not a one time cut, we save every month on payroll), who cares if YoY revenue goes up or down.
If you take the 25% YoY revenue loss and apply it to Q3's numbers from last year then you could think that Q3 will see $340m in revenue (drop of $26m). We profited $40m in Q2 so we would still be profitable. If you look at the numbers from the first 2 quarters (hardly a trend), but they are "stable" meaning if you maintain the current revenue you would be profitable all the time.
The company is not reporting a "30% reduction in ad revenue" from month to month, just year to year. They have already cut to the bone and only have to maintain revenues to keep the status quo.
That is quite possibly the dumbest statement I have ever read someone make.
----------------------------------
That is because you do not understand it. In this kind of economy for a company to survive, they have to make more money than they spend.
$42m profit on $365m revenue. Call it $325m in revenue is required for break even. As long as you stay above break even...you stay in business (no chapter 11).
Just admit that you know that the fundamentals are correct and you can move on with your life.
That is because you do not understand it. In this kind of economy for a company to survive, they have to make more money than they spend
Son, I have done this for a living for the past 25 years. You are the one that doesn't understand what you are talking about.
Your statement was stupid and ignores the fact that your idea of what is happening can be sustained. It can't.
You should really consider getting an education in the field. You have the interest obviously, but your understanding of the ramifications are that of a child.
11:16am I am calling you out and give your post no credibility. Give us your experience and dictate, in writing, evidence to contradict the 10:45am posting. The person that posted it took the time to do it so therefore if you want any of us to believe you, show us he's wrong.
Doing this for 25 years huh? And you are shilling on a micro-blog site? I think it is time for you to get a new job (or just start applying for Social Security) as your time is up old man.
I agree with what they are saying (on the most simplistic level). I am also the only one that predicted yesterday that the stock would be up 40-50% (and I have not been doing this for 25 years). My guess is that your time doing this lead you to believe it would be Chapter 11 time.
When your incoming cashflow is still shrinking, that is not a healthy company. It's like firing most of your employees, moving out of your building and selling out of a mall kiosk.
With all this cheering over health and profitability, how does MNI ask unions and leftist reporters to take FURTHER cuts?
Oh, and the bank still expects their loan payments thank you
When your incoming cashflow is still shrinking, that is not a healthy company.
--------------------------------
Agreed...it is not...however from Q1 to Q2 was it that big of a drop? If you maintain the $365m (even if it is 25% lower than a year ago) you are a healthy company as you are still profitable. (Remember you lowered costs in Q2 to make you profitable).
--------------------------------
Oh, and the bank still expects their loan payments thank you
--------------------------------
This is included in your expenses. The company profited (sort of) $42m...this means AFTER they made the loan payments (interest).
///Sweetheart/// writes, “I am calling you out and give your post no credibility.” You are so cute when you are demanding proof. Are you stamping your little feet? Adorable!
11:34 AM, It is a little late to say anyone needs proof of anything they write. The Anchorage Daily News has set the truth bar down to zero, for Zero Obama. Just stay out of the deep end of the dumpster, you’ll learn to swim in the slime with the liberal media. You sound like a proper candidate already.
You write, “Weird. Why are all the comments from "Anonymous"?
If you sign your name, or use a still anonymous moniker, the liberal trolls will pick you out as a target to attack. 101 Soros/Alinsky blog destruction plan. The Gannett Blog was ruined by liberal trolls attacking the blog host.
I would like to know what happened to Les? I heard he was harassed by liberal idiots, and that added to his burden of caring for his ill wife. Are you still here Les? Give us an update.
...You are so cute when you are demanding proof. Are you stamping your little feet? Adorable!...
Oh, of course not, nobody is asking for proof. Just keep on repeating GOP talking points and Limbaugh rants. Keep on slinging those mindless charges and expecting everyone to take your word for it. After all, Limbaugh said it, and he's the "truth detector."
27 comments:
Media General Swings To Profit As Ad Declines Begin To Slow
Uh Oh, guess newspapers might be around a little bit longer.
About a month longer. Enjoy the up tick while it last, which won't be for long.
Pruitt has to be about ready to pull the all-online card. Print is a dead duck, judging by McClatchy's quarterly figures. You can't sustain profits with continued print losses. The answer is to drastically whack print's loser costs and go with a modern method of delivery - online. Do it! Now you moron!
If they go totally online, staff cuts will be HUGE. But it's inevitable and the only way to go to survive.
This stock runup will be shortlived. People trying to make a quick buck. Reality will set in soon and stock price will drop. You can't have a sustained stock runup with revenue and ad sales declines of 25-31 percent.
Newspaper companies are "showing profits" only because they drastically slashed costs and watered down the product. This is a temporary fix to stop the bleeding. Everybody knows it. The real test comes now. Remember that McClatchy stock traded above $5 in the past year. They HAVE to keep cutting costs to show "profits." Look for more staff reductions and nobody is going to get a raise - unless it's Pruitt and his henchmen.
This is just a case of people responding to the lies that were forced upon the public about the financial soundness of the company.
Remember that old saying, "numbers do not lie but people lie by using numbers".
Let Pruitt and the board of directors make a little money off the artificial stock price runup (and you know they are making it today). It will be their going away present before the company folds.
...So go out to Saltgrass and have a lunch steak to celebrate...
The revenue loss is year over year. For those of you that do not remember, the "crisis" started in August/September of last year. You cannot compare YoY numbers to gauge improvement.
Once revenue increases from month to month/quarter to quarter, then you know the company has turned the corner. They already cut expenses to account for the 30% revenue drop.
As long as Q3's revenues are about the same as Q2's, then the profit would be the same (regardless of the % drop in YoY numbers).
Revenue Breakdowns:
Q1 '08 $488.3m
Q2 '08 $489.7m
Q3 '08 $451.6m
Q4 '08 $470.9m
Q1 '09 $365.6m (25% YoY loss)
Q2 '09 $365.3m (25% YoY loss)
Q3 '09 $336.9m (25% YoY loss)?
Since the expense cuts are ongoing (meaning it is not a one time cut, we save every month on payroll), who cares if YoY revenue goes up or down.
If you take the 25% YoY revenue loss and apply it to Q3's numbers from last year then you could think that Q3 will see $340m in revenue (drop of $26m). We profited $40m in Q2 so we would still be profitable. If you look at the numbers from the first 2 quarters (hardly a trend), but they are "stable" meaning if you maintain the current revenue you would be profitable all the time.
The company is not reporting a "30% reduction in ad revenue" from month to month, just year to year. They have already cut to the bone and only have to maintain revenues to keep the status quo.
Since the expense cuts are ongoing (meaning it is not a one time cut, we save every month on payroll), who cares if YoY revenue goes up or down.
That is quite possibly the dumbest statement I have ever read someone make.
That is quite possibly the dumbest statement I have ever read someone make.
----------------------------------
That is because you do not understand it. In this kind of economy for a company to survive, they have to make more money than they spend.
$42m profit on $365m revenue. Call it $325m in revenue is required for break even. As long as you stay above break even...you stay in business (no chapter 11).
Just admit that you know that the fundamentals are correct and you can move on with your life.
That is because you do not understand it. In this kind of economy for a company to survive, they have to make more money than they spend
Son, I have done this for a living for the past 25 years. You are the one that doesn't understand what you are talking about.
Your statement was stupid and ignores the fact that your idea of what is happening can be sustained. It can't.
You should really consider getting an education in the field. You have the interest obviously, but your understanding of the ramifications are that of a child.
11:16am I am calling you out and give your post no credibility. Give us your experience and dictate, in writing, evidence to contradict the 10:45am posting. The person that posted it took the time to do it so therefore if you want any of us to believe you, show us he's wrong.
Qualitative statements mean nothing.
@11:16
Doing this for 25 years huh? And you are shilling on a micro-blog site? I think it is time for you to get a new job (or just start applying for Social Security) as your time is up old man.
I agree with what they are saying (on the most simplistic level). I am also the only one that predicted yesterday that the stock would be up 40-50% (and I have not been doing this for 25 years). My guess is that your time doing this lead you to believe it would be Chapter 11 time.
When your incoming cashflow is still shrinking, that is not a healthy company. It's like firing most of your employees, moving out of your building and selling out of a mall kiosk.
With all this cheering over health and profitability, how does MNI ask unions and leftist reporters to take FURTHER cuts?
Oh, and the bank still expects their loan payments thank you
When your incoming cashflow is still shrinking, that is not a healthy company.
--------------------------------
Agreed...it is not...however from Q1 to Q2 was it that big of a drop? If you maintain the $365m (even if it is 25% lower than a year ago) you are a healthy company as you are still profitable. (Remember you lowered costs in Q2 to make you profitable).
--------------------------------
Oh, and the bank still expects their loan payments thank you
--------------------------------
This is included in your expenses. The company profited (sort of) $42m...this means AFTER they made the loan payments (interest).
///Sweetheart/// writes, “I am calling you out and give your post no credibility.”
You are so cute when you are demanding proof. Are you stamping your little feet? Adorable!
Wierd. Why are all the comments from "Anonymous"?
11:34 AM God you are an idiot.
My 5 month old can't type yet, but asked me to reply "i know you are, but what am I?@?!?". She says she'll see you tomorrow on the playground.
12:52 PM Are you drunk?
11:34 AM, It is a little late to say anyone needs proof of anything they write. The Anchorage Daily News has set the truth bar down to zero, for Zero Obama. Just stay out of the deep end of the dumpster, you’ll learn to swim in the slime with the liberal media. You sound like a proper candidate already.
You write, “Weird. Why are all the comments from "Anonymous"?
If you sign your name, or use a still anonymous moniker, the liberal trolls will pick you out as a target to attack. 101 Soros/Alinsky blog destruction plan. The Gannett Blog was ruined by liberal trolls attacking the blog host.
I would like to know what happened to Les? I heard he was harassed by liberal idiots, and that added to his burden of caring for his ill wife. Are you still here Les? Give us an update.
...You are so cute when you are demanding proof. Are you stamping your little feet? Adorable!...
Oh, of course not, nobody is asking for proof. Just keep on repeating GOP talking points and Limbaugh rants. Keep on slinging those mindless charges and expecting everyone to take your word for it. After all, Limbaugh said it, and he's the "truth detector."
New target price now $2.15. Still time to double on this no-brainer.
Jay F
no-brainer.
Exactly the word that comes to mind. But not for the stock.
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