Thursday, January 22, 2009

JP Morgan analyst: McClatchy faces threat of default in coming quarters

Fitz and Jen have the latest on McClatchy's prognosis from JP Morgan analyst Alexia Quadrani, who says McClatchy faces a threat of default in 2009:
"... in light of Carlos Slim's recent investment in the New York Times Co., JP Morgan analyst Alexia Quadrani decided to take a deeper look at the debt level of companies in her coverage universe -- the NYT, McClatchy and Gannett.


"OK so in her estimation McClatchy stands out as the company most at risk. Those amended credit agreements (7x debt to EBITDA in 2009) the company got back in September are only going to carry them so far. But Quadrani suspects that the way things are going for the industry at large -- ad revenue declines that have yet to hit bottom -- McClatchy is going to run into trouble in the later half of 2009. "We believe it still faces a threat of default in coming quarters," she concludes."

Look for this concern to be raised at McClatchy's Fourth Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call in 2 weeks.

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14 comments:

Anonymous said...

This means the end...is...near

Anonymous said...

Damn, Alexia is one of the most accurate and sought out CFA's in the business..as in top one or two.

McClatchy Watch said...

Alexia Quadrani knows the newspaper industry better than most.

Anonymous said...

This means cash those buyout check at ONCE!!!

Anonymous said...

The question is, can bankruptcy proceeding kill off all the union contracts?

Anonymous said...

Liberals: Sing your little song.
Don't worry, be happy.

Anonymous said...

All signs indicate that the advertising segment will see steep declines in 2009.

Retail advertising seems to be boosted by liquidation sales. Then, there's the 'no competition' effect: the surviving retailers can shift their marketing dollars, because the competitor's demise creates opportunity for new marketing.

MNI will have to give away ad space, just to keep the news hole from shrinking to a size of a newsletter.

Anonymous said...

The question is, can bankruptcy proceeding kill off all the union contracts?
------------------
Yes it can, but you should know that McClatchy has very, very few union shops. Unions are not the problem here. They never were. Fact is, most of the people that have been canned the past year are the very same SCABS that took the place of the union workers several years ago.

Dave D. said...

...I heard tonight that the Sulzberger family paid 14% interest for the $250Mil. loan they just got from Senor Slim. The NYT has name cachet, but McClatchy doesn't. Who's going to loan McClatchy a cent at any usurious rate when, as 11:43 say's....The end is Nie .

Anonymous said...

Not only 14% interest, but 16 million preferred shares, effectively giving him a 27% interest in the company. Combine this with Harbinger Capitals 20+% and the fact that this isn't going to be enough, the next step is the Sulzberger family starts losing their voting grip or the company goes bankrupt.

Either way, they still have more time than McClatchy because they have property that can be liquidated.

Anonymous said...

We all know another billionaire that bought himself ( laying the risk on others ) into a dying newspaper chain.

Zell meet Slim

Anonymous said...

WOW, so they aren't union run, and they still are running the paper into the ground.

Idiots and blind to boot.

Anonymous said...

Don't worry, brother Obama will save us all.

Anonymous said...

We are giving up serious journalism because of Advertising.

What if there were no watchdog journalist in our country.

The TV medial is a sham. Yes, CNN. MSNBC and Fox.

They only report their views and the nightly shows are like robo shows. The same news over and over.

For instance, The Natalie Halloway story. How many young women in the world were killed during the time these so call news shows reported about that.

They could be show news from around the world and educate the country about global events.

On Saturday night, MSNBC programs people in prison that is unfit for viewing. Only a sick individual would get a kick out of that trash.

They could use this time to train new journalist and cover world issues and politics.

Maybe if they had, we would be more informed about the genocide in Africa and Bosnia and the Tailbone.

After Hitler, we need to be aware of all of the all brutal and mad dictators in the world and what is going on now. We read how it will never happen again after the Hitler even though it is taken place today. Ignorance, that is why.

Our country would not be here today was in not for journalism and good reporting. Newspapers and TV would rather talk about Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise that spend time reporting on what really matter.

They can copy and paste the news off of the unvetted blogs as long as they can get their Macy's and Neiman Marcus ads in the paper. This way, they can hire young silly reporters and get rid of ones that know how to search out a story. They can not spell or use correct grammar.

They are more worried about ads than they are about the real news. Too Bad!